Friday, August 6, 2010

'Acceptable' number of casualties

No matter how you interpret the data, or whether you're a glass half-full or half-empty type of person, you have to admit one thing, today's job numbers aren't causing anyone to jump for joy.

At this rate, the economy will never fully recover -- well, at least not in most of our lifetimes, and that's all that really matters for people already on the edge. There probably is going to be a new economic norm that is somewhere below where it was in previous decades. Sure, some folks will land on their feet. Some businesses will flourish, maybe even exceed pre-recession revenues. But for millions of Americans, this slow trickle of so-called good news -- this one step forward, a half step back approach to economic recovery -- means their pain is going to get worse. A lot worse. We need about 10 steps forward to even begin to get back to where we were in normal times. And that doesn't appear likely.

As I ponder the whole situation it seems to me that like in war there is some acceptable number of casualties that society is willing to live with. Whenever we as a country emerge from this war, however that is defined, a lot of people will be left behind. Whether that number will be in the hundreds of thousands or millions remains to be seen. But it does seem obvious at this point that many folks who were previously in the middle class will not be returning to that status. As long as that number doesn't exceed a certain percentage, most Americans will go about their lives just fine, happy to see a trickle of good employment/economic news each month. Happy that they weren't the ones who got shut out from the recovery.

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