Thursday, October 29, 2009

Economic numbers a bit deceptive

Some good news to take with a large grain of salt: The economy grew by 3.5 percent after four consecutive quarters of declines. The report was released today and exceeded expectations. However, how much of that growth was driven by the government's temporary "cash for clunkers" program that boosted the auto industry? As with improving real estate numbers mostly due to new government tax incentives, one has to question whether these improved statistics can be sustained without the stimulus money and government intervention.

I suspect that until jobs return and people begin feeling stable in their careers, any recovery will be skewed by various short-term government programs that are propping up certain industries. Ideally, spending must come from individuals not the government for there to be a true economic recovery. Spending won't return until folks feel comfortable with their incomes. Employers must become confident they can begin hiring again. In that regard, there is still a lot of work to be done.

I no longer look to Wall Street or the U.S. Commerce Department for accurate indicators of where the economy is going. It's nice to hear of good news coming from both of those places, but the job market is the engine that provides the power to the economy. Plain and simple, a lasting recovery will be built by opportunities being restored to those who want to work. The middle class has been the backbone of America and will be again if we can reverse the only numbers that truly count -- the unemployment and underemployment numbers. The government can help with this but it can't continue to spend billions to create the temporary illusion that things are improving.

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